Affordability and Costs
Four compounding crises are quietly dismantling the foundation of America's food supply.
What to Know
- Farm bankruptcies surged 46% in 2025 to 315 filings, the second consecutive annual increase
- Farm-only income hit negative $328 in 2025; total household income stays positive at $110,014
- Roughly half of U.S. farm borrowers are expected to be profitable this year
- Nearly 90% of farm families depend on off-farm income just to survive
- More farmers are now over age 75 than under 35
American farmers are facing some of the toughest conditions since 2009, and most grocery shoppers have no idea. In a TIME op-ed published August 2025, Land O'Lakes CEO Beth Ford warns that a gathering storm of compounding crises threatens not just farm finances but the long-term stability of the U.S. food supply. For ordinary Americans, that instability eventually shows up as higher prices at checkout.
Ford's warning is not hypothetical. Farm Policy News confirmed in February 2026 that 315 farm bankruptcies were filed in 2025, up 46% from the prior year. Every farm that closes is a business that no longer produces the food supply Americans depend on, and a community that loses an economic anchor it cannot easily replace.
When Income Goes Negative
The financial math facing farmers right now is brutal. Commodity prices have remained low while input costs, including fertilizer, fuel, and equipment, stayed elevated after years of inflation. The result is a median farm-only income estimated at negative $328 for 2025, meaning the average farming household is spending more than it earns from agricultural activity itself. Nearly 90% of farm families now rely on wages or salaries from entirely separate jobs to cover basic household expenses.
Farm-only income went negative while household earnings stayed positive. Created via Gemini.
That dynamic has a compounding effect on the broader food economy. When farming is not financially viable as a standalone livelihood, fewer young people enter the profession. Ford's TIME piece notes that more farmers today are over age 75 than under 35, a demographic imbalance that points directly toward a shrinking future production base and long-term food cost pressure for American households.
Labor Shortage Meets Immigration Policy
Agriculture runs on labor, and that labor is disappearing. A Washington Post investigation from October 2025 found that the Trump administration's own Labor Department acknowledged tougher immigration enforcement is actively hurting farmers and straining the food supply. Crops that cannot be harvested get left in fields, and production gaps push prices higher for consumers.
The American Farm Bureau Federation has called agricultural labor reform critical to national food supply stability. Without a functional guest worker program or a meaningful visa pathway for agricultural workers, the gap between what farms need and what the labor market provides will only widen as the existing workforce ages out.
A Farm Bill Still Unresolved
American agriculture runs on five-year planning cycles, and Congress has not delivered a new Farm Bill since the 2018 version expired. Short-term extensions keep basic programs alive, but they force farmers to make long-term land, seed, and equipment decisions without the policy certainty those decisions require.
Beth Ford, President and CEO, Land O'Lakes
Beth Ford, President and CEO of Land O'Lakes, warned at the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit that without immigration reform to solve chronic labor shortages, the U.S. agricultural sector faces a catastrophic "black swan event."
Congress has left the Farm Bill, the primary federal policy framework governing agricultural subsidies, crop insurance, and rural development, unresolved for years beyond its original expiration. The Nature Conservancy's May 2026 analysis highlights that passing a new five-year Farm Bill is vital to provide long-term certainty, though existing safety nets continue to operate under short-term extensions of the 2018 Farm Bill. Farmers can still access core programs, but operating on rolling extensions forces short-term planning in an industry that runs on long-term cycles.
Wrap Up
The crises Ford identifies are not separate problems. Low commodity prices reduce income, which drives experienced farmers out. An aging workforce with no younger replacements shrinks production capacity. A labor shortage reduces what can be harvested. And a stalled Farm Bill removes the long-term certainty that historically supports planting and investment decisions. Each crisis feeds the next.
For American households already managing tight budgets, a weakened agricultural sector means less supply and higher food prices over time. Paying attention to farm policy is not an abstract civic exercise. It is a direct input into what groceries cost.